New Poll: BDP/HDP Increases Share of Likely Voters in Istanbul

 

(ANF) According to a new poll conducted by the Center for Political and Social Research (SAMER), the BDP/HDP have increased their share of likely voters, in particular in Istanbul. Polling also shows that the BDP/HDP did best among voters supporting of female mayoral candidates and those subjected to forced migration. The HDP/BDP also has the most satisfied supporters, with almost 4 in 5 BDP/HDP voters indicating that they are pleased with the performance of the party.

Polling data – which was collected between November 23 and December 7- asked about voter preferences in the municipal elections to be held this March. Pollers surveyed 2,574 individuals in Istanbul and 1,370 in Izmir for a total of 3,944 individuals. All interviews were done face-to-face at individual residences.

In response to the question, “If the general election were today which party would you vote for?” 6.17% of those polled in Istanbul said that they would vote for the BDP/HDP. In the 2011 local election the BDP received 5.34% of the vote in the city. The polling data also indicated that the AKP would win 53.03%, the CHP 31.4%, and the MHP 6.84%. Data further indicated that results in İzmir would be similar

The BDP/HDP also proved to have the most satisfied supporters. To the question of whether or not the individual was satisfied with the party for which he/she would vote, 79.49% of those voting for the BDP/HDP indicated they were satisfied. While AKP and MHP voters were not particularly satisfied, the least satisfied voters were those supporting the CHP:

In the Istanbul Mayoral Election data indicated that Mustafa Sarıgül (CHP) would receive most of his support from those of middle and upper socioeconomic background; Kadir Topbaş (AKP) from lower socioeconomic backgrounds: and Sırrı Süreyya Önder from the middle and lower socioeconomic backgrounds. While AKP voters tend to look at the current situation of the economy positively, and CHP voters negatively, there was so statiscally significant correlation among BDP/HDP voters.

According to the polling data 1.52% of Istanbul residents were subjected to forced migration. This comes to around 210 thousand people. Of these 70% indicated they would vote for Sırrı Süreyya Önde, 26% for Kadir Topbaş and 4.3% for Mustafa Sarıgül. Data indicated that 1.61% of Izmir residents were likewise subjected to forced migration. Of them 87% indicated their support for the HDP while 13% said they would vote for the AKP:

Data also showed that 16.98% of Istanbul’s population and 11.39% of Izmir’s population identified as Kurdish, while 5.34% of Istanbul’s population and 7.34% of Izmir’s population identified as Alevi.  12.58% of those identifying to be Alevis in Istanbul indicated that they would Sırrı Süreyya Önder – a rate more than twice that of the general population.

Polling also confirmed that Kurds, as well as Alevis, suffered disappropriate socioeconomic disadvantage as can be seen in data concerning average monthly salary:

Average Female Salary 1501 TL

Average Male Salary 1684 TL

Average Female (with headscarf) Salary 1236 TL

Average Female (without headscarf) Salary  1631 TL

Average Kurdish Salary 1487 TL

Average Salary of Non-Kurds 1644 TL

Average Salary of Alevis 1504 TL

Average Salary of Non-Alevis 1628 TL

Support for Mother-Tongue Education

In response to the question “What do you think about the provision of mother-tongue education for people of different ethnic groups living in Turkey?” the majority of the population, or 54%, supported the idea, while 29% opposed it and 17% neither supported nor opposed it.

Of those indicating they would vote for the AKP, 56% supported mother-tongue education, 20.35% opposed, and 15.52% neither supported nor opposed it.

Of those indicating they would vote for the CHP, 41.3% supported mother-tongue education,37.6% opposed, and 14.9% neither supported nor opposed it.

Of those indicating they would vote for the BDP/HDP, 90.58% supported mother-tongue education, while 5.07% remained against it.

Of those indicating they would vote for the MHP, 33.92% supported mother-tongue education,47.13% opposed, and 13.66% neither supported nor opposed it.

Of those who were not Kurdish, 48.93% supported mother-tongue education,32.43% opposed, and 18.39% neither supported nor opposed it.

Potential voters were also asked to rank themselves ideologically. While most voters considered themselves centrists, they could also choose between: near left, far left, near right and far right. In terms of the ideological composition of their supporters the AKP resembled the MHP, while the BDP/HDP resembled the CHP. Kurds voting for the AKP tended to identify themselves as more right-wing, while those voting for the BDP/HDP tended to identify themselves as more left-wing.

Support for Women Mayors and Gezi

The highest percentage of voters preferring female mayoral candidates were among those planning to vote for the BDP/HDP and Sırra Sürreya Önder. Voters planning to support Önder also showed the highest support for Gezi, with a plurality claiming to completely support it.